Subject: Myanmar Coup Updates for October 10
Looming clearance operations in Myanmar's northwest; unconfirmed reports of high-level defections; attacks on Tatmadaw up since NUG declaration of war; Tatmadaw plays up NUG "terrorism"; former Rakhine Chief Minister sentenced to two years; UNSG seeks postponemenet of ASEAN-UN Ministerial; agreement of UNHCR-Bangladesh MoU on Bhasan Char culmination of failed negotiations; risk persist for Rohingya after Mohibullah's assassination, including for the killers
- Fears grow of clearance operations in the northwest: The Tatmadaw has deployed up to 3,000 fresh troops and a notorious (and already sanctioned) lieutenant general to lead clearance operations in Myanmar's northwestern Chin, Magwe, and Sagaing. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed grave concerns about the "substantial deployment of heavy weapons and troops by the Myanmar military" in Kanpetlet and Hakha (Chin), Kani and Monywa (Sagaing), and Gangaw (Magwe); the Chin Human Rights Organization also reports the deployment of armored tanks. All of these areas have been without internet for the past two weeks (Hakha excepted) and the sites of heavy fighting (there are reports of two dozen Tatmadaw troops killed just on Friday, a further nine on Saturday, and more than 20 in separate attacks in Sagaing and Magwe Sunday) and displacement, with up to 100,000 displaced in Sagaing. There was also a new wrinkle in the alleged detention of the North West Commander, with an ethnic armed group claiming that he was prepared to defect and admit to atrocities committed under his command; several of his aides are rumored to have defected as well. If true, his defection would have been the most senior from within the Tatmadaw by far; that he was replaced by Lt. Gen. Than Hlaing likely signals how the Tatmadaw plans to go on the offensive in the area.
- Attacks on Tatmadaw increase in month since NUG declares war: With Thursday marking a month since the NUG declared "a people's defensive war" against the Tatmadaw, attacks against the military have increased significantly. The NUG claims that more than 1,500 Tatmadaw troops have been killed since the declaration, more than double the toll in August; the toll was deadliest in Yangon, where nearly 200 were killed. More specifically, there was another attack in Naypyidaw, the fourth in a week, with the Naypyidaw PDF claimed to kill six soldiers in a raid. Separately, more than 120 telecoms towers have been destroyed in the last month. In addition to the attacks (or perhaps because of the threat of them), more than 150 military-appointed administrators have resigned in the last month, further inhibiting the Tatmadaw's already thin governing capacity.
- Tatmadaw-MNDAA conflict on the China Border: Frontier Myanmar has a deep dive on the simmering conflict between the Tatmadaw and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army near the border with China and the impact it has had on displacement and humanitarian challenges. This is one aspect of escalating conflict that China has to be particularly concerned about, given the potential cross-border implications.
- Karenni Army celebrates 71st intake: A video circulating on social media shows the 71st class of the Karenni Army celebrating the completion of their training. The Karenni Army has cooperated closely with the Karenni Nationalities Defense Forces, an agglomeration of PDFs in Kayah and Southern Shan; their morale appears to be significantly better than that of the Tatmadaw.
- Tatmadaw plays up "terrorism": Though the Tatmadaw officially branded the NUG, the CRPH, and PDFs "terrorists" in early May, it has recently played up its allegations, likely in a bid to delegtimize the opposition movement internationally. Though its allegations are unlikely to sway Western nations, the audience is more likely its friends within ASEAN and the near abroad (China, Russia, India, etc.). In a long diatribe in state media (see pgs. 8-10), the Tatmadaw emphasized the evolution of the opposition from peaceful demonstration to armed resistance (failing, of course, to mention its crackdowns on peaceful protesters) and highlighting alleged opposition attacks on COVID facilities and blaming the PDF for torching Kinma village though it was responsible. The Tatmadaw is also castigating foreign governments for "abetting terrorism" by meeting with members of the NUG and allowing them to set up representative offices in their countries (see "Press Release" on p. 1).
- UN Myanmar criticized for "misrepresentations": The NUG criticized a briefing held by the UN's acting resident and humanitarian coordinator, Andrew Kirkwood, for a series of alleged misrepresentations, arguing that Kirkwood failed to lay sufficient blame on the Tatmadaw for the crisis Myanmar faces and neglected to address human rights. In a statement echoing the language of the NUG, the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar castigated the UN for accommodating the junta in a bid to maintain access and, thus, repeating past mistakes.
- Junta receives shipment of 1M doses of Covishield: The Tatmadaw received a shipment of 1 million Covishield vaccines from India, the first such shipment since the coup. The previous NLD government had agreed to purchase 30 million doses of Covishield, though just 1.5 million were delivered, in late January, before the military takeover.
- Former Rakhine State Chief Minister sentenced to two years: The former, NLD-appointed chief minister of Rakhine was sentenced to two years in prison for sedition; he is the third NLD leader from Rakhine to be sentenced to prison time and will face a separate corruption charge - which carries up to a 15 year sentence - from jail.
- International response
- UNSG seeks to postpone ASEAN-UN Ministerial: The UN Secretary-General is seeking to postpone the ASEAN-UN Ministerial; it is my understanding he refuses to participate if the junta is represented.
- EU passes wide-ranging resolution on Myanmar: The EU on Wednesday passed a (non-binding) resolution on Myanmar which calls for additional targeted sanctions and what is being interpreted as some as recognition of the NUG and CRPH though the actual language is more ambiguous ("Supports the CRPH and the NUG as the only legitimate representatives of the democratic wishes of the people of Myanmar").
- China seeks to restrain the NLD: An analysis from USIP contends that China's outreach to the NLD is at best superficial and that it continues to cultivate ties with the Tatmadaw to advance and protect its development interests in Myanmar.
- Signing of Bhasan Char MoU marks culmination of failed negotiations: UNHCR announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Bangladesh for its operations on Bhasan Char. The signing of the MoU marks the culmination of a botched negotiation process in which nearly 20,000 Rohingya were relocated to the island since December last year despite serious concerns about the voluntariness of the process, the availability of essential services for Rohingya on the island, and the detention of hundreds of Rohingya that sought to flee back to the mainland. Compelled by the humanitarian imperative of providing services to those it failed to protect earlier in the relocation process, UNHCR has now walked back nearly every demand it had sought in order to gain access to the island. While the MoU allows for protection, livelihoods activities, formal education (eventually), and guarantees free movement on the island, there will be no assessment of the island's habitability, there are no mechanisms in place to monitor Bangladesh's (already breached) commitments to voluntary relocations, and no agreement was reached to enable Rohingya to return to the mainland. It is also disappointing that UNHCR went forward with signing the MoU while the dust from Mohibullah's assassination is still settling (see below). While some Rohingya on Bhasan Char reportedly celebrated at the announcement of the MoU, expecting better services, Rohingya in Cox's Bazar are more circumspect. Bangladesh nonetheless anticipates resuming relocations of Rohingya to Bhasan Char later this month with plans to relocate a further 80,000 Rohingya to the island by February. It is unclear if donors will be willing to support services on the island or if international NGOs, who do not yet have a presence, will begin operations there.
- Rohingya in camps continue to face threats: Despite tighter security, Rohingya in the camps in Cox's Bazar continue to face threats from ARSA even as Bangladesh continues to deny their existence in the camps. Mohibullah's family continues to receive death threats in the wake of his assassination and are seeking to resettle in third countries. His family and a number of others closely affiliated with ARSPH remain in the camps and at risk of attack or abduction. Others possibly facing threats include those responsible for Mohibullah's killing, with voice recordings circulating in the camps alleging that the commander of ARSA has ordered the killing of Mohibullah's killers lest they be detained and share sensitive details about ARSA's operations.
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
